We’re ten games in and it’s still not quite clear who the 2024-25 Vancouver Canucks are.
The Canucks have won 5 games and lost 5 games but they’ve also earned points in 8 of their 10 games with a 5-2-3 record that has them third in the Pacific Division.
They’ve yet to play like the team Canucks fans saw last season — a stalwart defensive team with a strict system that limits odd-man rushes and cross-seam passes — but they also haven’t yet played like the team Rick Tocchet wanted heading into training camp — a quick-strike offensive team that attacks off the rush and takes advantage of mistakes made by the opposition.
Instead, the Canucks seem caught in a limbo between the two styles, uncertain yet of their identity.
On the plus side, the Canucks earning points in 8 out of 10 games while sorting out their identity seems like a pretty big positive. The hope is that once the Canucks sort out who they’re going to be this season, then they’ll take off.
In the meantime, while it’s uncertain exactly who the Canucks are, there are a few things we have learned about the Canucks through ten games.
1 | The Canucks are a solid puck-possession team at 5-on-5
While the Canucks may still be sorting out their identity, their underlying numbers are actually improved from this same time last season. While last year’s Canucks stormed out of the gate aided by some absurdly high percentages, this year’s Canucks are getting less lucky but have actually controlled the puck more consistently.
Adjusting for score effects, the Canucks’ 52.3% corsi ranks in the top ten in the NHL according to Natural Stat Trick. More than that, their 53.7% expected goals percentage indicates they’re doing a solid job at out-chancing their opponents.
This shows up very clearly in the heatmaps from HockeyViz, which show that the Canucks are getting a lot of shot attempts from the slot, while mostly preventing similar chances for their opponents. They’ve actually done a very good job of protecting the front of the net.
All that is to say, as the Canucks sort out the details of their game, they have a solid foundation of puck possession to build on.
2 | Quinn Hughes is even better than last season
Quinn Hughes has been simply unreal to start the season. His underlying statistics are bonkers and a big reason why the Canucks are keeping their heads above water at 5-on-5.
In over 200 minutes at 5-on-5, Hughes has a corsi percentage of 63.1% as the Canucks have out-attempted their opponents 255-to-149 in his minutes. His expected goals is even more heavily tilted in the Canucks favour at 66.6% and the Canucks have out-scored their opponents 11-to-4 when he’s been on the ice at 5-on-5.
Hughes’ corsi and expected goals both rank third among NHL defencemen behind Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker, who have the benefit of playing for the possession powerhouse Carolina Hurricanes.
They’re also a big jump up from last season, when he was the best defenceman in the NHL. If he can sustain those underlying numbers, it would be one of the most dominant seasons ever by a defenceman.
3 | Carson Soucy is a problem that needs to be solved
With Hughes dominance, the Canucks should be an even better puck possession team than they are. The trouble is that the Canucks’ second pairing has been awful.
The biggest cause appears to be Carson Soucy, which is surprising as he was such a steadying presence last season.
The trouble for Soucy seems to be that he can’t move the puck effectively enough for Tocchet’s new emphasis on playing an up-tempo style. He leads the Canucks in giveaways this season as his passes too often fail to connect.
Soucy has the worst corsi and expected goals on the Canucks. His 38.1% corsi is the fifth-worst among the league’s defencemen who have played at least 100 minutes at 5-on-5 and his 35.7% expected goals is sixth worst.
The Canucks have been out-scored 10-to-4 when he’s been on the ice at 5-on-5, essentially nullifying the advantage created by Hughes.
The other big problem is that it’s hurting the ability of one of their top lines to create offence. The line that has spent the most time with Soucy is Pettersson’s line with Conor Garland and Nils Höglander. With Soucy, Pettersson has a corsi of 37.6%. When he’s away from Soucy, Pettersson’s corsi jumps up to 54.1%.
It’s even worse with J.T. Miller, who has spent less time with Soucy. When those two players are on the ice at 5-on-5, the Canucks have been out-shot 22-to-5.
That’s simply unsustainable. The Canucks have to either figure out what’s wrong with Soucy or find another top-four defenceman to play in his stead.
4 | Erik Brännström rescued the third pairing
If Soucy was struggling to move the puck in keeping with Tocchet’s new up-tempo style, those pains were felt even more by Derek Forbort and Vincent Desharnais on the third pairing.
Fortunately, the Canucks acquired Erik Brännström as essentially a throwaway in the Tucker Poolman cap dump.
Brännström may have some glaring flaws in the defensive zone — he struggles with boxouts and netfront battles — he makes up for those flaws with his ability to move the puck up ice. That simplifies things immensely for his defence partners, as they can simply move the puck to Brännström and trust that he can skate or pass the puck out of the defensive zone.
In his sheltered role on the third pairing, Brännström has put together some lovely underlying numbers. His 55.7% corsi is third behind Hughes and Filip Hronek on the Canucks and the team has out-scored their opponents 6-to-3 at 5-on-5 with him on the ice.
The question is whether Brännström could continue that success in tougher minutes. If so, he could be the solution to the Soucy situation. Personally, I’m not sure Brännström could handle second-pairing minutes but if Soucy continues to struggle, it might be worth a shot.
5 | Conor Garland is a star
Last season, Conor Garland was the anchor on a dominant third line with Teddy Blueger and Dakota Joshua. This season, he’s the anchor of the Canucks’ entire forward corps.
With 9 points in 10 games, Garland is putting up points like a true top-six forward. His 3.03 points per 60 at 5-on-5 is the highest rate of his career and currently ranks in the top 50 in the NHL.
The Canucks have out-shot their opponents 72-to-51 with Garland on the ice at 5-on-5, a ratio only bettered by Hughes on the Canucks.
More than that, Garland’s consistency has made him a linchpin of the Canucks’ gameplan. He’s been bumped up the lineup to play with Elias Pettersson and the two have found some chemistry together. Honestly, the Canucks’ best bet for Pettersson’s linemates might just be to reunite Dakota Joshua with Garland alongside Pettersson.
6 | Kiefer Sherwood is a hitting machine
We all knew that Kiefer Sherwood liked to finish his checks. That was clear from watching him against the Canucks in the playoffs last year and from his statistics. What’s surprising is just how much he’s hitting this season.
Sherwood leads the NHL with 69 hits despite averaging under 13 minutes per game. The player in second place is Sherwood’s former teammate with the Nashville Predators, Jeremy Lauzon, who set the NHL record for most hits in a season last year. Lauzon has 60 hits but is a defenceman averaging 18:30 in ice time per game.
When it comes to hits per 60 minutes, Sherwood is hitting at twice the rate of Lauzon: 32.3 hits per 60 minutes to 16.2 hits per 60 minutes.
Sherwood is currently on pace for 566 hits this season, which would smash Lauzon’s record of 383.
Along with the hits, Sherwood has been a contributor on the penalty kill, where the Canucks haven’t given up a goal with him on the ice, and he’s chipped in 5 points through 10 games.
7 | The Canucks power play never shoots the puck
The Canucks have the lowest shot rate on the power play in the entire NHL and not just by a little bit.
The average NHL power play generates a little over 97 shot attempts and 48 shots on goal per hour. The Canucks average 77.5 shot attempts and 34.9 shots on goal per hour, both rates dead last in the league.
The Canucks have still been able to score some goals on the power play because they’ve got the talent available but their 16.1% success rate is still 24th in the league. That’s simply not good enough.
8 | Elias Pettersson is quietly coming into form
It’s been a bit of a tough start to the season for Elias Pettersson, who hasn’t quite looked like himself.
In the last couple of games, however, Pettersson’s game has taken some significant steps. His shot attempts have gone up, with 13 shot attempts in his last two games, and his puck possession game is rounding into form as well. After some rough outings to start the season, the Canucks’ expected goal percentage with Pettersson on the ice at 5-on-5 has been above 55% in each of the Canucks’ last five games.
The chances are coming for Pettersson and his linemates; next comes the finish.
9 | Kevin Lankinen is the biggest free-agent steal of the summer
Through the first ten games of the Canucks’ season, Kevin Lankinen has been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. His .919 save percentage is in the top ten in the NHL and the Canucks have earned at least a point in each of his seven starts, often solely because of Lankinen’s heroics.
He’s also one of the cheapest goaltenders in the league, with a cap hit of just $875,000.
The Lankinen signing is one of those deals that makes you thoroughly question the wisdom of paying big money for a number-one goaltender. Turns out you can just find a number-one goaltender after training camp has already started and sign them for under a million dollars.
Okay, so that’s a slight exaggeration. The whole point of a true number-one goaltender is that they’re consistent year after year and you can be confident in your goaltending heading into a season rather than throwing darts while blindfolded and hoping for a bullseye.
There’s also no guarantee that Lankinen can keep up this performance. This is a heavier workload than what he’s been used to as a backup with the Nashville Predators for the past couple of years.
Still, with Thatcher Demko getting closer to a return, he may not have to keep it up much longer and the Canucks can be confident in giving him more starts than the typical backup to help keep Demko healthy and fresh.
10 | Arturs Silovs isn’t ready
After his performance in the playoffs, some Canucks fans were all aboard the Arturs Silovs hype train. There were even some who suggested that the Canucks ought to trade Demko, who has admittedly struggled to stay healthy, and make Silovs the starter.
To be clear, that was always a tiny minority of voices suggesting such a drastic move but Silovs did seem ready to assume backup duties behind Demko this season, at the very least.
After his struggles in his first three starts this year, however, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Silovs has lost all three games and his .797 save percentage is the worst in the NHL among goaltenders who have appeared in more than one game.
The hype over Silovs always needed to be tempered by the fact that his numbers have never quite lived up to the hype. Even in the playoffs, his save percentage was .898.
There are still plenty of reasons to believe that Silovs will become an NHL-caliber goaltender long-term but the 23-year-old could do with another stint in the AHL once Demko returns to action.
