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Poll finds B.C. NDP ahead but election still too close to call

The B.C. NDP were found to be 5% ahead of the BC Conservatives, but the margin or error in the polling means the election remains a near dead heat.
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B.C. NDP leader David Eby (left) and BC Conservative leader John Rustad have just over a week to make their final case to B.C. voters.

A new poll from Ipsos Reid shows the B.C. NDP is ahead by five percentage points with just over a week before election day. 

The poll, released Friday, found 46 per cent of respondents would most likely support or lean toward voting for the B.C. NDP. The BC Conservative Party trails with 41 per cent support, and the BC Greens with 10 per cent. A further 21 per cent of respondents said they were undecided.  

The poll, however, is accurate to within plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. That means the race between the NDP and Conservatives is close enough that it remains within the margin of error. 

In other words, it remains too close to call. 

Supporters of all three parties agreed their top issues were the cost of living, health care and the affordability and availability of housing. 

The poll showed NDP support was strongest among voters 55 and over, while Conservatives held an edge (53 to 31 per cent) among younger voters. Women favoured the NDP by a 12-point margin (50 to 37 per cent). Conversely, support for both parties was statistically split among men.

Regionally, the NDP was found to lead the Conservatives by 20 points on Vancouver Island, while in Metro Vancouver support between the two leading parties was split with each receiving 46 per cent from respondents. 

The Green Party, meanwhile, received 13 per cent support in the Interior, North and on Vancouver Island — better than the seven per cent support the poll reported in Metro Vancouver.  

The poll found 35 per cent of British Columbians think incumbent David Eby would make a better premier than Conservative leader John Rustad, who received 25 per cent support for the job.

Rustad and several of his Conservative candidates have been under fire over incendiary and false comments made in the lead-up to the election. Those comments included Rustad telling the Globe and Mail that the science around human-caused climate change is an unproven “theory” and “not even a crisis.” That position, which got Rustad kicked out of BC United two years ago, is also widely at odds with the global scientific consensus.

Rustad also changed basic details of a story he told about a person who died of an overdose on his way to a televised leaders' debate after reporters confirmed the BC Coroners Service had no record of a death at that location.

Meanwhile, the Conservative leader said he would stand by two candidates whose recent remarks on Indigenous and Muslim people drew condemnation from election rivals and other critics.

Asked about his candidates on Friday, Rustad said that British Columbians face a "stark choice" in the Oct. 19 provincial election.

“We have candidates who have said a number of things and represent their ridings, and it will be up to the people in the ridings to elect them," Rustad said.

Rustad has also been attacked by other parties and critics after he was seen in a video saying he regretted taking the COVID-19 vaccine. And while he later said that was because he has a heart problem, a full 27 per cent of respondents in the poll said they regret getting the COVID-19 vaccine.

Statistically weighted by region, age, gender and education, the Ipsos poll surveyed 1,000 British Columbians between Oct. 9 and 10. 

With files from The Canadian Press