There’s not much point at looking back at the big political stories of the past year. The stunning result of the May provincial election pretty well dwarfs everything else.
The election result almost redefined B.C. politics, or at least many of its conventions
The future of the NDP (long the alternative to the free enterprise coalition party) is now very uncertain, political polling (the mainstay of political strategy and media coverage) may no longer be reliable, older voters appear to hold a disproportionately high level of political power because they actually cast ballots, and a lot of issues and controversies the media and political opposition make hay over don’t seem to count with many voters.
So instead of dwelling on the past, let’s look ahead at what are expected to be some key issues and decisions in the coming year:
1. To build or not to build: mega projects are everywhere!
The federal government will announce sometime this spring whether the Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline will get the green light to proceed. Although the project has been met with overwhelming opposition from First Nations and much of the general public, it is commonly thought the Harper government strongly backs the idea of building a pipeline through remote northern wilderness to hook up with oil tankers along a pristine coastline that has never seen a tanker.
In the coming year, focus will also shift towards the other big pipeline proposal: Kinder Morgan’s plan to twin its existing pipeline. The bigger issue here is the five-fold increase in tanker traffic that will result from the new pipeline, but Kinder Morgan has done a better job of “selling” its project than Enbridge did when it comes to garnering public support for it.
Nevertheless, look for a lot of public protests and demonstrations targeted at Kinder Morgan over the next year.
Another proposed mega project will also get a lot of attention this year: the Site C dam on the Peace River. Public hearings will last until January, and eventually the provincial government will formally announce what everyone already knows: it supports the project, and so construction will begin.
Again, there will be anti-Site C dam protests in the coming year, but I suspect they will have little impact on the decision to green light the project.
Other big projects to take significant strides forward this coming year include a number of mines, and expansion of port facilities in Metro Vancouver. The B.C. Liberals will support all of them, while the NDP will tie itself in knots as it tries to accommodate both the environmental movement and the private sector unions.
Speaking of the NDP:
2. Doesn’t anyone want this job?
NDP leader Adrian Dix announced back in September he would step down to make way for a new leader, and so far the only thing notable about a contest to replace him is the fact that no one seems to want the job.
The number of potential candidates has dwindled to just a handful, with long-time MLA Mike Farnworth heading the list. Others may include rookie MLAs David Eby, Judy Darcy and George Heyman.
But none of these candidates appear to scare the B.C. Liberals whatsoever.
Farnworth, if he wins, will be painted by them as a nice guy who is controlled by the special interest groups (unions, enviros, etc.) who control the NDP. Heyman and Darcy are former leaders of public sector unions, which are hardly viewed as representative of most peoples’ interests. And Eby has a laundry list of unpopular positions he took when he ran the B.C. Civil Liberties Association (I suspect the B.C. Liberals will be rooting for him, more than anyone else, to emerge as the victor).
3. Everyone wants more transit but doesn’t want to pay for it.
That, in a nutshell, is the conundrum that TransLink finds itself forever mired in. But next fall’s pivotal referendum on how to fund transit operations may finally provide some clarity on the issue.
We haven’t seen the question yet, and Premier Christy Clark and Transportation Minister Todd Stone seem to be on different pages on the issue (Clark favours a multiple choice ballot, while Stone wants a single, clear question). Nevertheless, the transit referendum has the potential to have more impact on Metro Vancouver than any single municipal election.
4. Enough of the talk, let’s see some results.
As in, just one contract signed, sealed and delivered to build a liquefied natural gas plant in B.C. would be nice.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
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