The B.C. Liberal leadership races concludes (finally) later this week, so let’s take one last crack at handicapping the contest.
The race seems to be genuinely limping towards conclusion. It has been a quiet affair, unable to attract much media attention since the stakes aren’t as high as the last time they went through this exercise (their 2011 contest was electing a premier, not merely an Opposition leader).
Last week saw some signs of life, however. A debate hosted by Global TV (which I moderated) saw sparks fly many times and may have provided some clues about where the candidates stand versus each other.
Let’s take a look at them:
Dianne Watts
She was the target of more aggressive questions than any of her rivals, which may suggest they consider her to be in first-place on the first count (the party is using a preferential ballot, which will likely mean there will be several “counts” after the last place candidate drops after each count and their supporters’ second and third choices are distributed).
Her chief strength is she is a complete outsider, which means she can’t be tagged with any of the misdeeds or controversies associated with the B.C. Liberal government. But her outsider status can also be a big negative, since party members – and not the general public – are the only ones voting (she also did poorly in the debates).
Todd Stone
Could be the “compromise” candidate who benefits most from all those second choice ballots. His relative youth compared to the others assists his argument that the party must “renew” itself and become younger, but he’s also associated with the previous government’s problems (hello ICBC) and that may hurt him.
Mike de Jong
The former finance minister has gobs of experience and performed well in that portfolio. But when it comes to political baggage, de Jong has a multi-piece Samsonite set: ICBC, B.C. Hydro, money-laundering in casinos….it’s a long list. He also fared badly in the 2011 leadership race, coming a distant fourth, which may be an indication of where stands with party members.
Andrew Wilkinson
Another former cabinet minister who scores highest on the cerebral meter. There’s no question he displays a fairly deep grasp of many complex issues, but he may have overdone his attacks on his rivals in that last debate, and that may cost him some second and third choice support.
Michael Lee
The dark horse. A newcomer, he has clean hands from the party’s time in government and he’s signed up the most members, but are they confined to a relatively few ridings which may make it hard to win enough “points” around the province to emerge victorious? Each of the 87 ridings have been assigned 100 points, and a candidate receives points in a riding based on their percentage share of the members’ votes in that riding (i.e. 34 per cent of the vote awards 34 points).
There are 8,700 points up for grabs and whichever candidate gets to 4,351 points (that’s 50 per cent plus one) will be the winner.
So Lee must show significant support outside Vancouver, Richmond and Surrey to have a chance. Still, if he can remain on the ballot for a while he’s one to keep an eye on.
Sam Sullivan
The biggest longshot. The ex-Vancouver mayor has stirred the pot with some provocative policy ideas (such as legalizing all drugs) but he’s expected to be the first candidate drop off the ballot. But he came across as the friendliest (and funniest) candidate at the last debate.
Party members begin voting Thursday and we should know the winner just past 6 p.m. on Saturday. Who knows what their prime motivation will be when they mark their ballots. Will they be voting based on friendship and loyalty, or will it be about who they think is best suited to beat the NDP come the next election?
I won’t predict a winner (I don’t think anyone has a clue how this will end), but I will predict this: I don’t see Premier John Horgan losing much sleep over any of the possible outcomes.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.
