One of the more curious and far-reaching pieces of legislation introduced by the NDP government during this fall's legislative session has nothing to do with Surrey policing or short-term rentals.
While the bills covering those two hot topics have received the most attention, Bill 39 (the Zero-Emission Vehicles Amendment Act) will be of interest to anyone planning on buying an automobile in the next decade.
The bill accelerates the timeline requiring all new light-duty vehicles sold in B.C. to be emission free. The original target was the year 2040 and the legislation moves that up five years to 2035.
Other targets now enshrined in legislation are 26 per cent of all new vehicles to be emission free by 2026 and 90 per cent by 2030.
This move comes as alarm bells are sounding about the state of the electric vehicle (EV) industry and markets. Although the number of EVs on B.C. roads have increased significantly over the past decade (from 5,000 in 2016 to almost 130,000 today), it is far from clear whether 100 per cent of all new light-duty vehicles sold in this province can meet the zero-emission requirement in less than a dozen years.
While current sales of EVs continue to be relatively strong (about 21 per cent of all vehicles bought in BC each year are EVs), there are concerns that demand is slowing in most markets to the point where major manufacturers such as Honda and General Motors have scaled back their targets and forecasts for EV production and sales.
A major impediment to significantly ramping up sales remains the high cost of such vehicles. The average price is more than $70,000, putting it far out of reach for most households needing to buy a new car.
Even government subsidy programs – in B.C., a combination of provincial and federal rebates can total up to $9,000 – do not make EVs affordable for many people struggling with cost-of-living issues on all kinds of fronts, from accommodation to food.
There is also the lingering question of the infrastructure requirements when it comes to EVs. In other words: will there ever be enough charging stations?
While the number of such plug-in availabilities has increased greatly – from just 781 locations less than 10 years ago to almost 5,000 today, although there relatively few in the north and the interior – it is far from clear whether strata housing units or rental apartment buildings will be required to incorporate charging stations into their locations.
Then there is the question of electricity supply. While B.C. Hydro will issue a power call next spring – calling for “clean” power, most of it likely from wind and solar projects – it is not clear whether enough electricity will be exist to meet rising demands that come with exploding population growth and industrial usage, let alone EV needs.
Finally, there is the issue of the supply chain used to build EVs. While the B.C. government is lauding itself for being the first jurisdiction to enshrine EV targets into law, the province has absolutely no control over the manufacturing of such vehicles.
China, through state-owned mining companies, has cornered the market on mining the precious minerals – chiefly lithium and cobalt – required to make EV batteries.
All these questions and issues account for some of the skepticism expressed about the new legislation. The New Car Dealers Association of B.C. was quick to issue a news release expressing concerns about the bill, saying it could lead to unintended consequences, such as higher prices on all vehicles.
Nevertheless, Energy Minister Josie Osborne told me that "third party modelling" gives her confidence the ambitious new targets can be met. We shall see.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.
